Provenance

Methodology

This page states which fields are imported, which are derived for display, and which are editorial. The same contract lives in docs/METHODOLOGY.md and in the in-app country drawer.

Conceptual frame

• ACLED Conflict Index ranks countries on deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed-group fragmentation, then derives an overall ranking. Source: About the Conflict Index.
• UCDP classifies organized violence as state-based, non-state, and one-sided. Source: UCDP Dataset Download Center.
• Humanitarian context: IDMC, UNHCR, OCHA, IPC.
• Structural indices: Fragile States Index, Global Terrorism Index.

Source-backed fields

These are never overwritten by display logic. They are intended to be filled by a planned import adapter.

• ACLED: overall / deadliness / danger / diffusion / fragmentation ranks; 12-month fatalities, events, civilian-targeting events.
• UCDP: state-based / non-state / one-sided active flags; active dyad count.
• Humanitarian: IDMC IDPs; UNHCR refugee outflow; OCHA people in need; IPC Phase 3+ share.
• Structural: FSI score; GTI score.

In the MVP seed, ACLED rank fields are null. Numeric seed values are illustrative rounded figures from publicly reported ranges. They must be replaced by the adapter before anyone treats a rollup as a measurement.

App-derived display fields

These are UI abstractions. They are not ACLED or UCDP measurements and must not be cited as such.

• risk_score — 0–100 composite used to order the watchlist
• risk_band — Extreme · High · Elevated · Monitor · Low Visibility
• trend_direction and trend_8wk
• civilian_risk_level and displacement_pressure
• primary_violence_type and hazard_tags

Editorial fields

summary, key_actors, named_theaters, and conflict_systems are short curated text. They are not an order of battle.

Refresh plan

1. ACLED Conflict Index import (planned weekly).
2. UCDP downloads adapter (planned).
3. Recompute derived fields only.
4. Update metadata.generated_at.